A discipline little known, the science of decision-making is nevertheless taught at high levels. These tips gives us the leads to take, now more than ever, the best possible paths.
Show humility!
We keep saying that we are in a period of uncertainty. But, in reality, it still is! We are simply facing a time when we can no longer pretend to have everything in hand. Usually, we do three-year budgets, business plans, without necessarily being belied by reality.
Today we are deprived of this illusion. Since the start of the Covid crisis, experts have succeeded in advancing confidently the truths that are regularly denied thereafter. The “good leader” is the one who accepts to say that he does not know, but that he will adapt.
It keeps him from being immediately denied by the facts. Look at Chancellor Angela Merkel or Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand – both women, by the way. They say, “If I find out that one of my decisions is wrong, I change it.” And they do. They are not in the top down, the regal, the “Jupiterian”. But they are the ones who are doing the best.
Avoid over-forecasting!
Often, we want to control the future, to “mark out” everything in advance, because we believe that this is how we limit the risks. It is a mistake. By doing so, we overestimate our ability to predict. Result: our roadmap is tight, padlocked, and does not leave enough room for the freedom to change, to welcome the unexpected, to be creative in the face of adversity.
Focus on competence more than the result!
This is the principle of the real poker player. Since his victory depends in large part on luck, he never congratulates himself on winning a game, nor does he blame himself for losing it. On the other hand, he focuses as much as possible on his technique, his skill, his way of doing things, of operating.
Right now, the growing amount of uncertainty puts us in the same position. It is important not only to evaluate the results of a team, but also the processes put in place, the work accomplished. It’s a different way of evaluating, based on trust. But it’s the only thing that pays off when you can no longer set valid goals.
Develop management tools!
To nourish all these reflections, it is essential to go in search of precise information, even – and especially – if it does not confirm your initial assumptions.
What studies and monitoring tools should be put in place to reduce uncertainties in the short term as much as possible? And go to the finest observation – of its target, changes in behavior, store visits, purchasing processes but also technological advances. The idea is to have these numbers, this information, before the others.
Avoid the “wait and see”!
The worst part is, “I don’t know, so we’ll wait, and we’ll see.” In the face of Covid, the countries that are doing the best are those that reacted the fastest. The ideal is to always put forward two or three scenarios, depending on the major adjustment variables.
Then, in these three possible scenarios, ask yourself, “What can already be done, here, now, right now?” Or if this scenario that I do not want occurs: “What insurance can I put in place now to protect myself against significant risks?” We can also dare bets.
Because the risk in the face of uncertainty is to have your foot on the brake all the time, forgetting the accelerator. One might ask, “What can I do in the event of an accelerated recovery?”, “What bets can I take today that I’m not sure they’ll pay off, but which, if they turn out to be fair, will pay me a lot? “
In fact, this is the strategy of the equity portfolio. We diversify the risks, and the chances. Francis Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The sign of superior intelligence is the ability to have two conflicting ideas in mind at the same time and to keep functioning.”
The same goes for organizations: it makes sense that not everyone in a team is working on the same vision for the future. This is called an intelligence strategy.
Reference: https://www.verywellmind.com/habits-for-better-decision-making-4153045
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